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How likely is this?

July 2, 2012 by
Filed under: General

Most everyone in the risk management industry knows about the monkey who is better at investing strategies than savvy investors who have been working in the industry for ages. Every expert will tell you that when you have 25,000 people in a stadium who throw a coin in a heads or tails game, you will have a few that will throw heads ten times in a row. We all understand this, and laugh about the foolishness of people not getting it. This of course woul never happen to us, or would it?
Every time there is a major football (not soccer, it is called football) championship like the World Cup, or the European Championships we have an enthusiastic colleague who organizes an innocent game where we can guess what the outcome will be. Innocent, but taken very seriously, of course. We can guess every individual game, which will get through the first round, who will reach the quarter finals, the semi-finals, until the final winner of the game. Ultimately, we must provide a lot of detailed information on dozens of games, and all the experts in our company participate. We all know a lot about football, and watch alot of games, know the ranking of all the players and countries, so clearly...

Now see what happens, and this is a true story. This year, we have one guy who doesn't like football at all, and didn't really have the time to enter the form. He asked a friend to help him out; he called out random numbers, which the friend would fill in. Guess, what? He is now in third place, and predicted Spain - Italy as the final. If he guessed the score right he could actually beat us all. There is only one way out of this; hopefully we find out the friend tampered the input, or else we will have our own dart-throwing monkey experience. Clearly, that would never happen to any one of us risk experts.

Tags: Risk

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